Iran Is Not Venezuela, Despite Trump’s Hopes of Repeating a “Regime Capture” Strategy

Iran is not Venezuela, according to many geopolitical analysts who question whether a strategy that appeared to work in Caracas could succeed in Tehran. As tensions rise in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly suggested that a similar approach to the one used in Venezuela could help reshape Iran’s political leadership. However, experts warn that the political structures, regional dynamics, and internal power networks in Iran make such a strategy far more complicated.

The debate comes amid escalating conflict and political uncertainty following major military operations targeting Iranian leadership and strategic facilities. While Washington’s approach in Venezuela relied on rapidly replacing the existing leadership with a figure willing to cooperate with the United States, analysts say Iran presents a very different challenge.

Iran Is Not Venezuela: Different Political Systems

One of the main reasons analysts argue that Iran is not Venezuela lies in the fundamental differences between the two political systems. Venezuela operates as a presidential republic with centralized political leadership, making it theoretically easier to influence leadership transitions after a regime collapse.

Iran, by contrast, has a complex political structure built around religious authority, military institutions, and a network of political organizations. The Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard, and various political councils all hold significant influence in the country’s governance.

Because of these layered institutions, removing a single leader may not necessarily lead to the collapse of the entire system. Experts say Iran’s power structure is designed to survive leadership changes without major institutional disruption.

The “Regime Capture” Strategy

Trump’s approach has been described by some analysts as a “decapitate and delegate” strategy, where the leadership of a government is removed while leaving much of the state apparatus intact.

In Venezuela, U.S. actions resulted in the removal of President Nicolás Maduro and the emergence of a leadership transition that was more open to cooperation with Washington. Supporters of the strategy argue that it avoided a prolonged military occupation while still achieving a political shift.

However, applying the same model to Iran is far more uncertain. Iran’s political elite includes powerful security institutions and ideological groups that may resist external pressure.

Regional and Strategic Differences

Another key reason Iran is not Venezuela relates to geography and regional alliances. Venezuela is located in the Western Hemisphere, where the United States traditionally maintains significant political and military influence.

Iran, on the other hand, sits in one of the most complex geopolitical regions in the world. The country maintains connections with various regional actors and armed groups, and it plays a significant role in Middle Eastern politics.

These relationships could complicate any attempt to rapidly reshape Iran’s political leadership.

Institutional Resilience in Iran

U.S. intelligence assessments also suggest that Iran’s ruling institutions remain resilient despite recent military pressure. Security forces, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, continue to play a central role in maintaining internal stability and defending the political system.

Experts note that without large-scale defections from these institutions, a sudden regime collapse remains unlikely.

Even if leadership changes occur, Iran’s political structure may simply reorganize rather than collapse completely.

Risks of Miscalculation

Analysts warn that assuming Iran is not Venezuela is an important consideration for policymakers. Attempting to apply the same strategy in two very different political environments could lead to unintended consequences.

Some experts fear that miscalculating Iran’s internal dynamics could lead to prolonged instability, regional escalation, or even a wider conflict involving multiple countries.

Others argue that diplomatic engagement may ultimately prove more effective than attempting to reshape political systems through external pressure.

A Complex Geopolitical Reality

For now, the comparison between Venezuela and Iran remains a topic of intense debate among policymakers, military strategists, and international relations experts.

While Washington may view its approach in Venezuela as a potential model for other geopolitical challenges, many analysts insist that Iran is not Venezuela—and that any strategy toward Tehran must consider the country’s unique political structure, regional influence, and internal resilience.

As tensions continue to unfold in the Middle East, the effectiveness of different foreign policy strategies will likely remain a central question in global politics.